Note the megalomaniac subtext to Blair’s comments: “You people out there don’t realise how good Mubarak is. I do because I’m in on the inside track. So, believe me, I know he’s a good guy. And that’s all you need to know. Take my word for it, because I’m one of the important guys in the world. You’re not. You don’t know as much as me.”
— Michael Rosen.
Egypt the day after Mubarak’s counter attack is in flux. The revolution has not been crushed, the pro-democracy forces have managed to beat back Mubarak’s hired goons and the army remains passive, but it all hangs in the balance: either the thugs are able to crush the protests in the next couple of days or there will be a genuine revolution in Egypt. The situation as we’ve seen in Tunesia, where Ben Ali fled, but his regime remained largely intact and is only grudgingly sharing power with the protestors, no longer seems an option in Egypt. As Jamie says:
And it’ll have to end now. A couple of days ago it was pretty clear that if they put Husni on a plane then the policy status quo could stay basically unchanged; that the removal of Mubarrak would carry enough of a symbolic charge to preserve most of the power of the local overclass, though of course things would have to become more inclusive. I thought that was the strategy: make Husni, or his absence, the change we can believe in, and yay reform. But not now. How can you hope to have an even partially fair election in nine months with the power structure that caused today’s carnage still basically in control?
The thing about revolutions is that they extend the realm of the possible. A month ago the protests we saw last week were impossible, the idea that prodemocracy protestors could win the battle against the police and state security unthinkable, the suggestion that the army would remain neutral in such a situation laughable. But it all happened, as people threw off their fears and discovered their own strength. Doesn’t mean the revolution cannot be repressed anymore, but if it is suppressed it will need Tianamen Square levels of repression, deliberate massacres and years of torture and brutality. Not impossible, but this price may be too high for Egypt’s ruling classes to pay. Egypt has reached a turning point and I think Jamie is right to say a compromise solution is no longer possible.
Meanwhile, the essential live updates to watch on Egypt remain The Guardian’s liveblog as well as Al-Jazeera.